I keep seeing people talking about the “Red Mirage” the idea that it only looks like Republicans are winning and it could still go either way.

So here's what happens:

1. Voting is reported by precinct.
2. Smaller, more rural precincts finish counting first and report first. These tend to swing much heavier towards R than D.
3. This makes it look like a state is fully and quickly "going red." This is the Red Mirage.
4. Bigger, more urban districts take longer to count and may stay open to allow everyone in line to vote. (STAY IN LINE)
5. As those urban districts, which swing much heavier D, start to report in, we see what the news calls The Blue Shift.
6. In addition, some states don't allow counting of mail-in/absentee ballots to begin until election day.
7. Those ballots tend to lean very heavily D.
8. As those ballots come in, the Blue Shift gets more pronounced.
9. That's what Trump was complaining about 4y ago about how "oh suddenly at 2 am all these votes out of nowhere." Those were absentee ballots being reported.
10. Additionally, deep red states are most likely to be called very quickly after polls close. This is why it looks like Trump is way ahead in electoral college votes right now.
11. The Blue Shift is no guarantee of how a state will eventually go, but don't freak out. This is gonna be a long night, and it may take several days before we know for sure how things will go. 

All good and true information. Don't lose hope. Don't panic. It looks scary right now but polls only closed less than two hours ago in the first states. We have a long way to go.

 

 November 5, 2024 the end of VONSHITZINPANTZ is here!